Thoughts on upcoming Kenyan Presidential elections

Thanks to my wonderful graduate assistant Shem Ngwira for helping me put together this piece. 

            As we await the August 8 elections in Kenya, one cannot rule out the possibility of violent elections as seen in the 2007 Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga faceoff. The International Criminal Court (ICC) charged Kenyatta with crimes against humanity, which were later dropped. In 2013, Kenya witnessed a closely contested yet peaceful election. Check out my recent article in Journal of Modern African Studies on hate speech in the Kenyan Election in 2013.  Hotly contested issues in the run up to this election include urban youth poverty, domestic terrorist attacks, corruption, and strengthening the rule of law just to mention a few. 

Perennial presidential candidate Raila Odinga alleges that the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) favors Kenyatta’s political party-- Jubilee -- and is not trustworthy. These suspicions led to violent clashes between Odinga’s Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) and the police in May 2016.  However, the IEBC Chair Issack Hassan mentioned to a parliamentary briefing that the electoral officials were willing to quit prior to elections. This was a result of opposition supporter’s exercising their right to protest hence creating pressure for the IEBC officials to make a public announcement on their electoral stance.

Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission Chairman Wafula Chebukati in Naivasha on March 9, 2017. PHOTO | SULEIMAN MBATIAH | NATION MEDIA GROUP 

 The Jubilee Alliance has been accused of an attempt to buy politicians from the north of Kenya in a campaign to weaken the opposition’s stronghold. The opposition politicians argue that only ‘weak’ northern Members of Parliament will fall prey to the governing party’s beckoning to switch allegiance with the overall aim of reducing votes for Odinga. These suspicions come at a time when the Jubilee party intends to amass political support from small political parties by sponsoring them to pledge allegiance to Kenyatta instead of the opposition political parties.

The 2017 elections have already been marred by a recent server hacking attempt of the IEBC servers. Chairman Wafula Chebukati of IEBC addressed informed the National Assembly’s Legal Affairs Committee but identities of the suspected hackers were left anonymous and assured the public that the servers were protected and not easily penetrated. This may have created further distrust of the Kenyatta administration and simultaneously elevated Odinga’s platform as a social change agent to reform such systemic challenges.

This is only but a snapshot of the events occurring in Kenya and how these tie into the upcoming elections. The tension between Odinga and Kenyatta stemming back from the gruesome events of 2007 laid a foundation of mistrust and strategic sabotage campaigns from both camps. 

We hope to see successful free and fair elections such as seen in 2013, which were approved as such by Carter Center and European Union.  However, the elections and public dissatisfaction in poor performance of the Kenyatta administration in addressing security issues as well as use of police to conduct extra judicial killings of dissenting individuals may have unintentionally set up Odinga for better poll numbers.

Women and politics in Kenya

This story caught my attention. Kenyans do tend to be socially conservative. It is not the first time that women have been attacked for their dress. I think that one issue is this is a matter of men keeping women in their place. I also think Rachel Machua's analysis is more or less reasonable. I think the AP title is incendiary, and sometimes I wonder at the trivialization of African politics by the Western press. 

Apparently, several protesters gathered in downtown Nairobi on Monday to protest against the last video posted online that shows a mob of Kenyan men surrounding a woman who is - according to them - provocatively dressed, and stripping her naked. Rachel Machua considers the recent attacks as the result of socio-economic conditions, where lower-income men attack successful and well-dressed women. About 10 percent of the protesters were men, marching because they believe in equal rights in Kenya, a country where women play an active role in the society. Other men, however, believe that "wearing miniskirts is the devil's work", and that they don't want "Kenya's women to seduce them by wearing revealing clothing". ( Kenya women march for right to wear mini-skirts by Associated Press, The Washington Post, November 17, 2014.) 

Patrick Gathara makes some decent points in a recent article. The 2010 Constitution really expanded the rights of Kenyan women, but getting men to respect them is another. 

Gathara analyzes the demonstration which occurred in Nairobi in support of a woman who had her clothes had been stripped off by a group of men. He says the focus has been on the tension between women's rights and a societally prescribed morality, but not a lot has been said on "how it illustrates a residual fear among some Kenyans of the consequences of respecting individual liberties". In 2010, the country has issued a progressive constitution, but its implementation has revealed to be harder than expected. (Kenya's fear of liberty by Patrick Gathara, AlJazeera, November 20, 2014) 

Thanks to my wonderful GA, Paola Cavallari, for doing the research that helps me stay on top of things. 

I am sorry for my extended absence. My beloved sister, Wangeci Bowman, died last year around this time. It has been a rough year. She was an amazing woman with Kenyan roots. She would have cheered her sisters on in their protest for women's rights. 

WMB 

Uhuru na Kazi In the Shadow of the Election

 

Photo of Mzee Jomo Kenyatta, with his son, Uhuru.

 If you do not know by now, the Kenyan Supreme Court upheld the election results this Saturday. Kenyan Supreme Court upholds Kenyatta's Win The decision was unanimous, which gives Uhuru Kenyatta some political capital going into the presidency. 

Uhuru na kazi. This phrase variously means Freedom and Work or Independence and Work. That was the motto of Kenyan independence, and some say it was one of Mzee Jomo Kenyatta's favorite phrases. Kenya attained independence in 1963. That makes 2013 the Jubilee year of Independence.


Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta was born the son of Jomo Kenyatta--who would become Kenya's first President-- in 1961. He was named Uhuru, in anticipation  for Kenya’s upcoming independence

Kenya's National Flag

 I took my time to write about the Court's decision, because I needed time to think about what it meant. I was happy at a visceral level, because as an observer, I saw a free and fair election. So I was happy to know my observations were not mistaken. I was also very happy that the Court took its time to make a thoughtful decision, that they ordered a partial recount, and that the errors which were present in the election were not so severe as to prevent it from being free and fair.  I am sad, however, that we have simply elected another representative of the Black Colonials, the political class, which knows no tribe. Who Will Mourn Wanjiku?

Kenya has proven that it can run a peaceful, free and fair election. Kenya has shown the world that it has strong democratic institutions, a strong and free press, and a competent and even-handed judiciary. Kenya has shown that it can maintain peace in a sea of conflict, even as wars rage in nearby Somalia and the Congo. Hongera. Mungu ni Mwema. 

The election has just ended, however, I also think that now is as good a time as any to reflect on whether dynastic succession is what is best for Kenya. One could argue that even if this election went peacefully and (relatively) fairly, the victors are not likely to implement major political change.  Both Uhuru and Ruto were politically groomed by President Moi. Why former President Moi is a political genius.  Rather, they are likely to maintain the status quo. Their incentive is to protect the "political class" and not the common wananchi.

Now that we have gotten through an election in one piece, the next challenge is to elect a person, whether male or female, who can challenge the extreme inequality in Kenya, and represent the aspirations of the people. Kenya has a robust constitution, with well laid out rules and procedures. The challenge will be to implement its vision, and give the document a lived meaning. This election, with all its flaws, is a good first step.

So now we have had a free election and we have some kind of Uhuru, yet, I suggest, it is not the real Uhuru the Mau Mau fought for. Now comes the kazi, the work. And indeed, it will be kazi kwa bidii. Can we all pull together to reach that vision of a free and independent Kenya that so many have fought for?

Technology and the Kenyan Elections

Dear readers

I do not know if you have seen my op Ed Al Jazeera today.

Here is my big takeaway.

The Kenyan election of 2013 can teach scholars, and observers of democratisation numerous lessons. First, a completely successful election in Kenya as well as other parts of Africa depends on large part on processes with high levels of transparency, consensus, and a careful chain of custody of votes. Second, technology must be carefully tested far in advance of elections, and care should be taken to identify weaknesses. Third, governments and civil society can work together to create independent institutions with clear rules, and well-trained voting officials. Finally, the 2010 Kenyan Constitution has helped to create institutions and laid out rules to promote democracy, which has already led to improved electoral outcomes.

For the rest, click here.

~WMB

Stressed OUT!

Raila Odinga flanked by CORD party members. Photo Credit, Nation Media.

Just finished chatting with a Masai friend and a Luo friend, and both are in an uproar. Good grief. Can this election just stop turning from sweet to sour?

My Luo friend says that if the Supreme Court does not rule correctly, the Luo may secede from Kenya!

My Masai friend says "the CEO and Chairman of IEBC got bribed and were threatened if they refused to take the bribe."

I am really struggling with their version.  I am struggling because if it is true, everything I thought I saw is a sham. I am also struggling because I just do not want to believe things can go this wrong, this fast.


I am not going to rely on rumours. Going back to a technical level, here is my logic.

1. Lets assume that the vote was valid at the polling station level. I think it was, because at the five polling stations I was at all political party agents had to agree on the vote.
2. Let's assume the vote was valid at the constituency level. I think it was, because agents and politicians were there, and scores of observers, and it is quite a trick to get 10 presiding officers to tamper with the vote in full view of the media, observers, political party agents (hundreds) and the candidates themselves.
3. Then, at that point, you have to demonstrate that a sufficient number of votes were tampered between the constituency level and Bomas to really turn the election. Remember that there were 290 constituencies.

I want to hear from the following sources 1) the Carter Center 2) the European Union and then . . . . .

Here is the preliminary EU report EU election observer mission to Kenya

Here is the ELOG report Elections Observer Group

I am just going to hang tight and see what the Kenyan Supreme Court has to say.

~WMB 

Some good reading

Habari wananchi

While I get my head together, check out some good reading. Mostly different than what I have to say. But you know what the best part of democracy is? Having a good conversation.

The Monsters Under the House  (Gathara) 

Expat Lives: The London of Africa  (Katrina J. Manson)

Peace vs. Truth: An Unnecessary Tradeoff  (Muthoni Wanyeki)

Thanks to my friend AB. She publishes this. Ratio Magazine

Here is her take 

Post Election Thoughts: Silence or Sensationalism?

Enjoy.

~WMB

Tuko Pamoja

Dedan Kimathi

I am trying to get back to that irie space I was feeling a few days ago, so just some positive music and some restful vibes.

A few days after the last election, I wrote an op ed in the Boston Globe called Moving Forward in Kenya. In January 2008, these were my words.

For hundreds of years, 42 ethnic and linguistic groups have lived peacefully together in Kenya, with high rates of intermarriage, trade, and in-migration. This violence [referring to the violence of the 2007 election] obscures deep social inequities in economic distribution that cross ethnic lines among all groups.

For 40 years, Kenya has been as a haven for refugees and a broker for peace settlements, avoiding the type of wrenching violence that has torn neighbors Sudan, Rwanda, and Somalia apart while earning a reputation as the most democratic nation in the region. Without immediate efforts toward national reconciliation [. . . ] Kenya risks descent into autocracy and civil war.

A few days after the 2013 election, I am grateful to Baba Mungu that my words today are happier. During the election period, I looked at my own family. We do not comprise 42 groups, but we represent many sides of this great nation. I looked at my office, and I looked at my sister in law, and I said, you know what, in our family, we have nchi mzima: the whole nation. My mother, a Kikuyu, married an mzungu (a white American). One of my aunts married a Kamba. My cousin married an African American who is Jewish. My husband is technically Kikuyu, but was raised on the coast. His brothers are Muslim, and are married to Wanawake waswahili. My children's last name is Ngaruiya, which means they have Maasai blood. 

So in my immediate family, we have Jews, Christians and Muslims. In terms of communities, we have

Kikuyu

Kamba

Swahili

Kizungu (white)

Masai

Sheng

and our chief officer manager is a Kao!

You know what the phrase I heard the most during this election period was?  "Tuko Pamoja". Yes, that is right, we are together. Because at the end of the day, as a people, as African people, as Kenyan people, as the diaspora, as people of different languages, communities, and histories we did this together. Whatever else you have to say about technological failures or court cases or the ICC, we got through this election peacefully, and that, my friends, is worth celebrating.

What Michela Wrong Got Right and Wrong (A Wonk's View)

Author's Note. This post has been edited to correct it with the latest Census figures. February 27th, 2013. ~WMB

Image of Anti-Corruption activist, John Githongo, a Kikuyu.

Michela Wrong has a very interesting article in the New York Times today on the Kenyan election. It is called Running on Amnesia (February 22, 2013: New York Times).

The article represents and engaging and interesting overview of the Kenyan election, and overall I agree with the broad brushstrokes. Her main point, that I agree with, is that Kenyan politicians are asking voters to cast their votes in complete ignorance of the horrible deeds that those same politicians committed very recently. Her second main point that I support is that the members of the international business community have not demanded accountability from those same politicians on issues of democracy and human rights.

Now, some constructive criticism. I know Michela Wrong is the author of "Our Time to Eat" which I have read. I also know she is good friends with John Githongo, whom I very much admire. But I hope that Ms. Wrong will accept my thoughts on how she could improve her work.

I am afraid that sometimes Ms. Wrong's book, and her article suffer from what I like to call "drive by journalism." I know that it is very hard to get the details right in an 800 word op ed, but unfortunately, her book has some of the same flaws as this article.

Perhaps I am picking nits, but I often feel that Ms. Wrong's work reinforces stereotypes and plays into the negative hegemonic discourse regarding the continent, the region, and Kenya itself.

Lets start with the first paragraph. "I was negotiating one of Nairobi's terrifying traffic circles - a maneuver that requires jumping over a lattice of open sewers while playing chickenwith aline of trucks snorting their way toward Uganda and Congo -

Well, some might accuse me of misplaced nationalism, but this description just does not ring true to me. I am half Kenyan, but I was raised in the US and I hold a US passport. I am the first to criticize my mother's country, but I like to be fair. I spend a lot of time in Kenya. I spent two years teaching there in Kabarak University (2004-2006), and I have spent at least two months a year there since 2006. I also have family in Kenya and have been back and forth for decades.

What is my objection? Nairobi has really come a long way since I used to visit in the 1970s and 1980s. The only open sewers I have seen in Nairobi are in the slums of Mathare or Kibera. She does not really describe which part of town she is in. I personally do not like driving in Nairobi, and I will agree that driving there is terrifying, but the city contains both the richest, and the poorest neighborhoods that you can see in the continent. As a whole, however, she starts her story with a depiction of a city that sounds more like Mogadishu than Nairobi to me.  To me, this just reinforces stereotypes about the poverty of the continent.

Next objection "The Kikuyu are the largest and most economically successful trible; the Kalenjin, a looser ethnic grouping, come second in size. Kenya's last three presidents have all been either Kikuyu or Kalenjin. "

I have a few bones to pick with this language. Please note that there are about 42 ethnic communities in Kenya, give or take a few. It is correct that the Kikuyu are the largest group. The Kalenjin are NOT the second largest group, and they are not a true "community." They are an amalgamation invented by the British of several small groups who speak mutually intelligible languages, including the Nandi, the Tugen, and the Kipsigi, among others. One thing I learned the hard way when I taught at Kabarak was that those subgroups do not always get along that well.  There was a census conducted by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics in 2009. Kenya-Census-2009 (Thank you to my cousin, Wanyiri Githaiga, for alerting me to this data, and correcting my statistics) See also Kenya Population Data. 

Here is my scholarly version: By virtue of demographics, the two most politically powerful language groups in Kenya have historically been the Dholuo (Luo) and the Agikuyu (Kikuyu). According to the 2009 Census, Kenya's Population was 38,000,000 in 2009. The CIA in 2012 put that number at 43,000,000. 

Here is a run down to fthe biggest groups 

1	KIKUYU	6,622,576
2	LUHYA	5,338,666
3	KALENJIN	4,967,328
4	LUO	4,044,440
5	KAMBA	3,893,157
6	KENYAN SOMALI	2,385,572
7	KISII	2,205,669
8	MIJIKENDA	1,960,574
9	MERU	1,658,108
10	TURKANA	988,592
11	MASAI	841,622
12	KENYAN	610,122

I LOVE IT That a significant number of citizens identify themselves as Kenyan first!!!


Two post-Independence presidents have come from the Agikuyu: Jomo Kenyatta and Mwai Kibaki. The Luo and the Kalenjin have been important factors in Kenyan politics, with the Kalenjin contributing Kenya‘s second President, Daniel arap Moi. Two of the most powerful post-Independence leaders have come from the Luo: Oginga Odinga and Tom Mboya. Oginga‘s son, Raila Odinga, carries his father‘s mantle as the undisputed leader of the loyal opposition and acts as a veritable force of nature in Kenyan politics. Kibaki has tacitly recognized the crucial political role of the Luo and the Luyha by giving the Vice Presidency to the Luyha and naming various Luos to crucial ministries at various points in his presidency. In particular, the Luo have recently controlled the powerful Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Akamba group, who are small in population, are nonetheless a powerful political swing group—a role that echoes their historic position as traders between other language groups in Kenya. The Luyha and the Kamba will be the groups to watch in the 2013 elections. 

 
Another pet peeve of mine is that I have yet to see hard statistical evidence that Kikuyu are the most economically successful group. There are lots of very poor Kikuyu living in the same slums of Kibera and Mathare as the rest of their country folk. Due to the shockingly high level of inequality in Kenya, and the political power of Kenyatta and Kibaki, a high percentage of the Kikuyu elite have gotten to participate in the political elite, but many Kikuyu are peasants with two or three acres, and an even larger group, like most Kenyans, are landless.  What is true is that both the Dholuo and the Gikuyu were early adopters of Christianity, and thus, both groups got access to education earlier than other groups. This means that they have been able to take advantage of the fruits of independence more effectively than other communities, which often leads to business success.

Okay, so now I have noted that the Kalenjin are most likely NOT the second largest group. Also, it is not clear at all that either the Kikuyu or the Kalenjin are monolithic and vote as a bloc, as I think Ms. Wrong's article implies. Indeed, given that the country's population is somewhere around 43,000,000, the Kikuyu comprise close to ten million persons. The language group is diverse and broken into three geographical areas, Kiambu, Muranga, and Nyeri. They all speak the same language and share the same basic customs, but they are heterogeneous, and have different regional personalities, and indeed, politics. Thus, I reject the suggestion of hegemony in Ms. Wrong's work, and really prefer a more differentiated and nuanced picture of all of these groups.

My final complaint is that Kenya has only had three president's since independence, so I do not find it informative to say "Kenya's last three presidents." Further, The first President, Jomo Kenyatta was selected in part with the acquiescence of the British,and the Kikuyu were crucial in the fight for independence. The second president, Daniel arap Moi, was the Vice President acting under Kenyatta, and continued the tradition of an authoritarian dictatorship with the veneer of democratic elections begun by his predecessor. Only the third president, Mwai Kibaki, was elected in something that looked like a free and fair election in 2002.

Okay, next, "Anything to keep Prime Minister Raila Odinga, a Luo who almost certainly should have won the 2007 election from becoming President." Well, the last time I checked, Ruto and Odinga were working together in 2007.  Second, as Wrong herself notes, Odinga is no angel, and certainly had a hand in the 2007 violence, even if he was not indicted. Third, there is no way of knowing who would have won the 2007 vote if things had been conducted fairly. Certainly, as was the case in Gore/Bush, the election was operating on a razor thin margin, and it is entirely possible that given Nairobi's proximity to Kikuyu country, Kibaki had a chance of winning fair and square in 2007 without rigging. We will never know, so Monday morning quarterbacking is not helpful, but does add fuel to the fire. For an exhaustive and detailed view of the 2007 election, take a look at the Kriegler and Waki reports.

I think that we need to reject the narrative of tribal feuding, and instead direct our narrative towards a political class that intermarries, works together to steal land and money from the people of Kenya, and will change bedfellows as quickly as tires if they think it will help them gain a job in the nation's kleptocracy. That kleptocracy, by the way, has members from every tribe in the nation. Let us focus on running an election where wananchi have a chance of winning. The real divide in Kenya is not between ethnic communities, it is between the political elite, and everyone else.

~WMB

Why am I interested?

I am interested in this election because I am a "reverse Obama." My mother (deceased) was Kenyan. She is a Kikuyu from Othaya, near Nyeri, in Central Province. My father is a white American of German descent, via the appalachias as well as New York. I grew up in the US, and consider myself mainly to be African-American, although I visited Kenya frequently as a child. 

My husband is also Kenyan, and how I met him is a long story. He is a Kikuyu, from Muranga, but that is not why I married him. He was a successful Safari guide when I met him, and was also a strong entrepreneur in other areas. We not have a safari company together, which services Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania. African Wildcats Adventure Safaris. He is very cosmopolitan, however, and speaks fluent French and Spanish. 

The bottom line is that due to being raised in America, and being half white, I am not a tribalist. Rather, I like to think of myself as a global citizen. Further, I have been carefully studying the use of information technology as a factor in democratization in Kenya and East Africa for a decade. You can check out some of my work here. www.warigiabowman.com I also had the good luck to live in Egypt during the Revolution. I have seen the power of information technology, and it will be increasingly important in this election. 

I am specifically interested in the use of telecommunications and ICTs (information and communications technology) by the Government of Kenya (GoK) in the voting and vote counting process. I am also interested in the use of short message service, twitter, and facebook 1) to send around "hate speech" or invalid rumors 2) to encourage friends and family to vote a certain way 3) to organize political speech such as rallies.

I also wish to investigate, through the use of media reports and other mechanisms, how the GoK uses information and communications technology in verifying the vote tally or otherwise promoting transparency. 

So that is my story!

Warigia and Hamadi's traditional wedding in Othaya, Central Province, Kenya 2004

~WMB

A Very Big Trip

Hi friends

I am off to go see the Kenyan Presidential Election of 2013. Please follow my antics and observations here, and at my twitter feed, @warigiabowman

I will give you unbiased, objective reporting with a little bit of fun, whimsy and culture thrown in!

Yours, WMB